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Kudrin Says: Drink, Smoke and Pay to Make Babies!

Although by some measures (such as debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios) Russia’s fiscal situation appears favorable relative to that of the United States, for a variety of reasons, and for now, the US can finance its massive and burgeoning spending...

Published 09-02-2010 5:01 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Russia, Energy

Thick as a BRIC

FT Alphaville summarizes the Troika Dialog argument touting Russia as the BRIC to bet on. According to TD: Russia has more raw materials, a more educated and middle-class population, a strong macroeconomic framework, a better track record, more resilience...

Published 08-26-2010 2:39 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Russia, Energy

How Do You Say “Mahan” in Chinese?

When I gave a talk about the national energy policies of Russia, China, and Venezuela to a group of State Department and intelligence people a few weeks back, my summary on China was: “If you want to understand Chinese policy as it relates to energy...

Published 08-16-2010 11:04 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, History, Energy, Military

Real Change is Hard. Propaganda is Easy.

Russia has ambitions of turning Moscow into a world financial center. Proving that old habits die hard, rather than do the heavy lifting that would be required to achieve that objective–e.g., eliminating raiding, strengthening property rights, improving...

Published 08-12-2010 1:40 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Russia, Energy

Remember That the Eagle Has Two Heads

On Monday I gave a talk on Russian, Chinese, and Venezuelan energy policies to a group of State Department officers and some other government folks from places like ONI. All of the people involved have energy as some part of their portfolio, and were...

Published 08-01-2010 1:14 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Russia, Energy, Military

Risk Preferences and Forward Curves

Not long ago I wrote a post about commodity forward curves, focusing on the confusion between “backwardation” as the term is used in the market, and as misused by Keynes, to the confusion of many. The basic point was that Keynesian “normal...

Published 07-28-2010 9:43 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Economics, Energy, Derivatives

Timmy! Antoinette

Dripping with condescension, Timmy! blew off the concerns of, oh, I don’t know, just about everyone in every kind of business about the effects of the regulatory avalanche that the administration and Congress have unleashed. No sign here of that...

Published 07-24-2010 3:08 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Energy, Derivatives

Shameless Self-Promotion

I have a couple of recent publications that may be of interest to some of you. A couple of folks have expressed interest in my recent Energy Law Journal paper on manipulation. Here it is: my policy recommendations are at the end. Cato just released a...

Published 07-23-2010 6:00 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Energy, Commodities, Derivatives, Exchanges

What Do You Get When You Cross a BP with an XOM?

A very strange thing indeed. There are rumors that ExxonMobil is considering a takeover of BP. I have no firm opinion on the likelihood of such a combination. But it would be a challenge to combine these two behemoths, for more than the usual reasons...

Published 07-13-2010 3:34 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Economics, Energy

Selected Observations on Frank-N-Dodd

I have read the derivatives and clearing titles of the Frank-N-Dodd act, so you don’t have to. Here are some random thoughts. First, a good chunk of it is mind-numbing language dividing authority between the CFTC and SEC, and instructing the agencies...

Published 06-30-2010 2:03 AM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Energy, Commodities, Derivatives, Exchanges

Eve Lincoln

I transfered from the Naval Academy to the University of Chicago as a junior. I knew that I had gone from the alpha of academic institutions to the omega when I learned soon after my arrival in Chicago of the Lascivious Costume Ball. No such thing in...

Published 06-28-2010 6:23 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Energy, Commodities, Derivatives, Exchanges

They Fight the Law. Will the Law Win?

Myriad commentators have criticized the Obama administration’s repeated flouting of the law. Professor Bainbridge has a list of some of the greatest hits the law has taken at Obama’s hands. So does Victor Davis Hanson. I wouldn’t go...

Published 06-27-2010 8:16 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Energy

BP and Counterparty Risk

Several reporters have called me to ask about the implications of BP’s travails for its trading operations, and more crucially, for the markets broadly. Here are some key points: BP probably has the largest energy trading operation of any firm in...

Published 06-26-2010 8:55 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Financial crisis, Energy, Commodities, Derivatives

This Is Just Retarded

Can you say that any more? Well, even if use of the word “retarded” is increasingly frowned upon, there are some special cases in which its use is so evocative, and hence so appropriate, that it should be blessed. The compromise on the Lincoln...

Published 06-25-2010 8:13 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Energy, Commodities, Derivatives, Exchanges

In Another Sign of the Impending Apocalypse

Igor Sechin is on a charm campaign. Let me repeat that. Igor Sechin is on a charm campaign. There is a long piece about him in a recent FT: As Russia seeks to shake off an economic crisis that wiped out layer after layer of the oil-fuelled gains of the...

Published 06-24-2010 9:25 PM by Streetwise Professor

Filed under: Politics, Economics, Financial crisis, Russia, Energy, Commodities

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Kudrin Says: Drink, Smoke and Pay to Make Babies!

Thick as a BRIC

How Do You Say “Mahan” in Chinese?

Real Change is Hard. Propaganda is Easy.

Remember That the Eagle Has Two Heads

Risk Preferences and Forward Curves

Timmy! Antoinette

Shameless Self-Promotion

What Do You Get When You Cross a BP with an XOM?

Selected Observations on Frank-N-Dodd

Eve Lincoln

They Fight the Law. Will the Law Win?

BP and Counterparty Risk

This Is Just Retarded

In Another Sign of the Impending Apocalypse